By Thad Warren
As another winter storm approaches Texas this weekend, Texans are understandably watching closely.
The forecast calls for freezing temperatures statewide, with a high chance of snow in North Texas and ice and sleet possible down through Central and East Texas.
With memories of Winter Storm Uri in 2021 still fresh, it’s important to carefully compare this event, particularly in terms of grid risk, preparedness, and likely impacts.
But, that doesn’t mean it’s time to panic. Before you go off and buy 500 rolls of toilet paper, consider this:
The National Weather Service (NWS) and local meteorologists say:
Key point: the forecast is still developing, and precipitation type (rain, ice, or snow) and intensity may change as the storm gets closer.
Winter Storm Uri was an extended, statewide deep freeze that caused widespread power generation failures and rolling blackouts across Texas. In contrast this predicted storm is much more mild.
Rather than labeling this “another Uri,” it’s more accurate to say that any grid risk will depend on how the storm evolves, particularly with respect to temperature timing, demand, and precipitation type.
Since 2021, several structural and operational changes have been put in place with the goal of improving grid resilience during cold weather:
After Uri, state regulators and grid participants implemented winterization requirements for generators and transmission facilities. Many units completed cold-weather readiness checks in previous seasons.
ERCOT and industry partners have updated governance rules and reliability practices, enabling better coordination and allowing utilities to invest in additional tools such as battery energy storage.
In the years after Uri, over 11,000 megawatts of new generation capacity have been added to the ERCOT grid, helping provide a greater supply cushion.
These changes were designed to reduce risk, not eliminate it entirely. Extreme weather can still challenge any large power system, but state and local grid operators have more preparedness tools now than they did in 2021.
According to ERCOT’s latest public statements:
These statements are consistent with standard grid operations ahead of major weather events, where operators prepare and monitor but do not necessarily expect systemwide outages.
Different parts of the state will experience this storm differently:
Remember: Localized power outages caused by ice or tree damage do not indicate statewide grid failure. While frustrating, this is typically up to your local utility like Oncor or CenterPoint to fix. We would expect them to have all hands on deck for this type of weather system, but outages can still happen.
Historically, winter storms, heat waves, and other types of weather anomalies cause rates to increase. Sometimes days, weeks, or longer. But, they almost always return to normal.
ERCOT data suggests that prices will spike over the weekend. Undoubtedly, this will mean that rates for consumers (i.e. the rates that are available from energy providers) will go up, at least in the short term.
EnergyBot recommends that you do not enroll during volatile periods like what we will likely see Friday January 23, through Monday January 26. If the forecast plays out as expected this will be a small blip in overall pricing and rates will stabilize quickly.
In short, don’t panic buy an electricity plan on Friday because you are worried about skyrocketing for months.
Texans should take winter weather seriously, prepare homes and plans for possible travel disruption and ice, but current data doesn’t suggest a repeat of the systemwide challenges seen during Winter Storm Uri.
The grid today operates with greater weather-readiness planning, increased capacity, and better operational coordination. However, weather forecasts can change, and residents should stay tuned to trusted meteorological and grid operator updates in the days ahead.
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